Consider the following statements regarding India's demographic trends:

Question

Consider the following statements regarding India's demographic trends:

I. Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential arising from a declining dependency ratio, due to a rising working-age population.

II. Demographic winter refers to the economic and social challenges arising from an increasing working-age population and decreasing old-age dependency.

III. India is expected to enjoy its demographic dividend till the mid-21st century, and its realization depends on education, skill development, health, and employment generation.

Which of the above statements are correct?

1. A. I and III only (Correct answer)
2. B. II and III only
3. C. I and II only
4. D. All of the above

Correct Answer

Option A — A

Detailed Solution & Explanation

The correct answer is Option A.

Key Points

• Statement I is correct: the demographic dividend is the growth potential that arises when the working-age share of the population rises and the dependency ratio falls, giving a larger productive workforce relative to dependants.
• Statement II is incorrect, and is the key: it inverts the definition.
• A demographic winter refers to the problems of a SHRINKING and AGEING population — falling fertility, a declining working-age population and a RISING old-age dependency.
• The statement says the opposite on both counts.
• Statement III is correct: India's demographic dividend window is generally estimated to run to around the mid-2050s, and realising it depends on education, skilling, health and job creation — otherwise the dividend can become a liability.

Exam Tip

• definition-inversion is the commonest trap in demography questions.
• Read for the DIRECTION of the change (rising/falling), not just the vocabulary.

Additional Information

• The demographic dividend is the growth potential created when the working-age population (15-64) outweighs dependants; India entered this phase around 2005-06 and it is expected to last until roughly 2055.
• It is a window, not a guarantee — realising it depends on education, skilling and job creation, otherwise the same bulge becomes a liability.
• India's median age is about 28, among the youngest of any large economy, while the total fertility rate has already fallen to about 2.0, just below replacement.